New commercial and residential buildings increase electricity demand. It is typical for energy efficiency programs to incent these new loads to be as efficient as possible through “new construction” programs. New Construction programs commonly use state energy codes and/or a version of ASHRAE’s 90.1 energy standard to simulate baseline energy consumption. Energy savings from the baseline can then be calculated by simulating the proposed building’s energy use.

Industrial facilities can also add new load to the grid. As with the commercial sector, it is often most economical to invest in efficiency when this new load is designed and constructed, either as a new facility, or additional production equipment or lines within an existing plant. However, industrial production is so unique that a standard set of guidelines like ASHRAE 90.1 would be extraordinarily challenging to construct. Thus, energy efficiency programs have virtually no “new production” program offerings, though a few incent lean manufacturing events, which can result in increased production. We use new production to refer to increased production from productivity improvements, addition of new production equipment, or building of a new manufacturing facility. Perhaps because of the lack of programs that incent new production, there is not a clear method on how to establish baseline energy use or count resulting energy savings.

This paper will present and discuss methods for creating a baseline for new production. The method will rely on statistical regression models of industrial energy use, or energy intensity curves of the production process. The regression models and energy intensity curves are related. We discuss similar regression modeling approaches for programs like Bonneville Power Authority’s “Track & Tune”, CL&P’s Process Reengineering for Increased Manufacturing Efficiency, and NYSERDA’s Industrial and Process Efficiency programs. The goal is to establish a reliable and scalable industrial baselining method such that new production programs can be justified to utilities, state agencies, and electric regulatory committees and achieve wide acceptance in the US.